I had a little too much to share on Facebook, time to use the blog. :-) I wanted to give an update on the weather for the ProSolo and CAM Challenge coming up at the end of the week. If you were to look at the NWS forecast, it contradicts what they say in their Area Forecast Discussion, so we need to take a look at the discrepancies. The image below is the current NWS forecast for Lincoln through Sunday. They do have thunderstorms in the picture for Friday, but for the moment, Saturday and Sunday are mostly sunny and mid 80's. You can always find that forecast here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_track_lincoln.php But if you read the AFD (those are posted automatically on the Facebook page), it says this... "Medium range models indicate a more active period for later in the week and into Labor Day weekend as upper-level flow becomes southwesterly and subtle waves are forecast to move through the area." My guess is that they are waiting to get a little closer in time before they modify the Saturday and Sunday forecast. PrecipitationHere's a comparison between the GFS and Euro for the moment (both 12Z runs from today), and they are showing fairly similar things. There is one thing to note. Trying to pinpoint the exact locations where rain is going fall and when, when you are 4-5 days out is usually not very productive, and especially in this case. There are no major systems that will cause this rain, it's mainly from a warm moist flow around the backside of an area of high pressure with little waves of enhanced moisture rotating through, so the models really have no clue at the moment where those areas will end up. Click on any image to enlarge. Lincoln stays on the edge of the heat and rain, but it's never too far away, and that is probably one reason why NWS Omaha is waiting to see how some of this evolves before updating the Sat-Sun forecast. TemperaturesHere's a look at the temps from the Euro which I'm sticking with for now. I'm not showing the GFS because all summer it has had outrageously high temps that have not verified. It's now looking Friday will be the warmest day of the 7 day period, but notice how the upper 80's and 90's aren't too far away. These are all 1pm (central time) temps So here is the summary of temps to this point. The top image is the deterministic model run, the bottom image are the ensembles, and you can see the differences between the two. Pretty close on Friday and Saturday, but they start to diverge a little after that. That diverging trend is the reason for using the ensembles to help average out the various ensemble members, and one of those ensemble members is the deterministic run in the 1st image below.
While we're looking, look at Wednesday on the top image... if that holds true, you might need a jacket. :-) I wrote a long Facebook post this morning about this topic only to have Facebook tell me they are having issues, and of course losing everything I wrote. I should complain but what good would it do, I know better than to trust Facebook with anything I do so I can only blame myself. So... let's try this again. The "Weather on This Date" is split into three main sections, the text part of WOTD at the top of the post, a section called "TODAY'S WEATHER SUMMARY", and a section called "TODAY'S FORECAST". In the "TODAY'S WEATHER SUMMARY" section is a group of three images titled "5 AM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS", and that section is the topic of this post. I picked 5 am randomly with no specific reason in mind other than I wanted to choose a consistent time before sunrise, and this just happens to be what I picked. All of these images come from Dr. Ryan Maue's new model website at https://weathermodels.com/ 5 AM TemperaturesThis is a look at the 5 AM temperatures, and I use the 5 am time period each day. Besides the map itself, there are two areas to focus on.
24 hour Temperature ChangeI like this map as it shows the average temperature trend for the entire county. If you watch this on a daily basis, you can see how the temperatures slowly start trending down after the hottest day of summer passes.
Dew PointsLike the temperature image, this one has two sections with additional data.
Tomorrow, I'll focus on the three WOTD images that precede these in the same section. First, thank you to all 121 of you that answered the poll, your responses are greatly appreciated and I have already taken a few actions based on the feedback. So here are the results of the questions and some of my thoughts and comments. I found all of the results interesting, and even more so with the comments. I'm sure you've already notice less automated post, and that seemed to be the biggest complaint in the comments. That plus for many, it didn't seem the automated post had the informational value they were looking for. I walk a fine line in trying to provide helpful information, but not too much, and that will always be an issue. Some people are like "what's happening today, then I'm outta here", others are into lots of detail. Some want to know the "why" behind the forecast, and others only want to hear about the bad weather. The good thing about the ever changing weather is that there is always something for everyone. Thank you again to those that took the time to contribute their responses to the poll. Your feedback is invaluable in helping me in providing the weather information that keeps you returning again and again. And even if you didn't respond to the poll, thank you for following. :-) Question 1I was a little surprised at how Fall dominated in peoples choice for favorite season. I was thinking that people would give a few more votes for winter... but they did that in the next question. Question 2Not surprised with these responses. I'm also torn between fall and winter, but winter weather is the best for me. I do love cool fall nights sitting around a fire though.... :-) Question 3Yea... me too. :-) I like to visit the beach, but I could (and will) live in the mountains. Question 4No surprises here! Mention the "snow" word and everyone becomes a kid again. But I also see that while people like winter weather, they don't like winter as much if there is no winter weather. Question 5Glad to see 38% of the people that responded read it, and thank you to those that do. Question 6I will be honest, I was a little surprised about these responses. But I also knew that a lot of stuff was being posted that many didn't care about, and I also knew that FB messed up the formatting so that some of the post were hard to read. But I also see that if Facebook quits allowing the automated post (and I think they still will), I won't be "as" concerned as I might have been before the poll. And yes, some of the post were from the Greenville-Spartanburg NWS office. What some of you may not know is that there are about 6 counties starting with Rabun in the northeast corner of the state and south along the South Carolina border that are all part of that NWS office instead of Atlanta. So in order to cover everyone in north Georgia, I have to watch the messages coming from both forecast offices. Question 7Thanks. :-) I'm still working to make it better. Question 8I see I'm not as accurate as I am informational. Guess I need to work on more "accurate information". :-) Question 9These are all great responses. I will be keeping all of these inconsideration as I move forward. I can also see that some people want more of "my thoughts" about what might happen and what's coming down the road. You do know my thoughts aren't as credible as the ones I show you don't you? :-) LOL! But hey, let's give the people what they want! :-) Question 10because of your feedback, I have already taken action on the automated post, and those should be dramatically reduced. Again, I will keeping all of this on consideration with every post I make.
Here's the Weatherbell 2018-19 Winter forecast video, and I've included a few images that they've posted to help illustrate the forecast. Here are a few high points from Joe Bastardi.
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