Early Tropical Action - 06/30/14

The Hurricane season officially started on June 1st, and we now have our first Atlantic tropical system to watch. 
Invest 91 is the official designation for this new tropical system that as of this morning, was 210 miles east-southeast of St. Augustine Florida. Invest 91 is currently drifting very slowly. The NHC had this to say in their morning Tropical Discussion:

"SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE LOW."

Right now, upper level winds are not too favorable, as the system is sandwiched between two areas of shear which is helping to inhibit strengthening, but recon is flying today to investigate.

Wind Shear - Notice the areas of shear to the east and west of the center of circulation. Shear tears apart storms by disrupting circulation around the center of the system. Click on the image to go to that page.

A large area of high pressure sits of over the central Gulf of Mexico blocking westward movement. The high pressure is forecasted to drift southwest and allow the tropical system to also move a little southwest before heading back north. Click on the image to go to that page.

Where to Next?

Most computer models (see image to the left)  show the system drifting south and then re-curving back to the north and then northeast, hugging the Atlantic coast as it moves north and northeast. The trend has been slightly westward, so we'll need to keep an eye on future forecast to see if that trend continues. 

The storm is drifting toward warmer waters (see image below) which should aid in shower and thunderstorm development over the next few days. The center appears to be getting better defined at the low levels this morning, we'll see how it evolves through the day today. 

More to come as this system tries to get its act together, but as it stands now, interest along the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coast should remain alert for future developments, as your 4th of July weekend is almost certainly in danger of being disrupted. 

---

Sea temperatures in celsius. 30 degrees celsius is ~86 F. You can easily see the path of the Gulf Stream as it flows north off the east coast of Florida. Click on the image to go to that page.