North Georgia Weather Blog

Monday Update for Severe Weather Potential

2/22/2016

It will be very important for everyone to pay close attention to the weather beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday morning for the potential for severe weather over north and central Georgia. First, here is the Atlanta National Weather Service office in their morning AFD:

THIS SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL WARRANT MUCH CONCERN AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TX KICKS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS PROMPTED SPC TO PLACE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO THOMASTON TO AMERICUS LINE. AT THIS TIME... THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT STAY TUNED AS THIS COULD CHANGE.

And here is more from the Storm Prediction Center in their Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE... LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TX/WESTERN LA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH DEWPOINTS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN MS/AL/GA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION... BUT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY VEERING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 60+ KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES... PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES... WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS CONTINUES... AND THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN COMING OUTLOOKS.

As you can see from the images below, it appears that we will eventually fall into the Slight Risk category and i wouldn't be surprised to see our area elevated to Enhanced possibly later today. Also, VERY heavy rain coming in over the next three days, with almost 3-4" expected over a large area of north Georgia.