The biggest story begins today and that's the rain. YOu can say goodbye to the 90's after today as temperatures will be dropping steadily all week long and highs Friday could even be in the upper 60's. Man... how nice would THAT be? :-)
But first, we have to get through the rain, and some of that rain is going to be heavy. Morning soundings show precipitable water values around 1.52" which is roughly the 99th percentile for this time of year. Once the thunderstorms develop today and evolve into a more linear mode, expect heavy rain, especially where those storms can train.
Unfortunately, the rain won't end today and Lincoln will have another chance for heavy rain tomorrow.
A look at total accumulated precip at 24, 36, 48, and 60 hours, according to the GFS.
Here's a zoomed in view of 48 hour accumulated precip. GFS on the left and 4km NAM on the right. Right now it appears that the NWS and models agree that the bulls-eye of precip will be in Iowa. Let's hope they are correct.
SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook
Official NWS Forecast
Excerpt from the morning Area Forecast Discussion
FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... WHILE SOUTHERN SECTION STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
Just a quick update this morning to let you know about the potential for severe weather on Sunday and into Monday.
The Omaha NWS office talked about the severe weather potential for the Sunday timeframe. Here is an except from the discussion and here is a link to the full text. Find the Nebraska Omaha office from the drop-down box and click "Submit"
WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES FOR A TIME. THEN BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. QUALITY OF ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTION.
I do like the sound of the long term though...
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook (Sunday)
Surface Based CAPE