2015 SCCA Solo National Championship Weather - Part VII

I'm draggin' guys.... we got in at 8 AM this morning after driving 16 hours... and I can't think right now. :-) I've had 2 hours of sleep since I got up at 4 AM yesterday...

The potential for severe is with us tonight, but I think Lincoln will escape the brunt of it. Right now there is a severe thunderstorm just south of Lincoln that has had 2" hail and rope tornado... we just got lucky. The NWS office in Omaha still thinks that some additional severe may occur along with more heavy rain. 

Here are a few pics of this storm from just a little while ago, along with a short video clip from my GR2 Analyst showing the hail core in the storm, as well as a possible signature of the rope tornado.

As far as the rest of the week... I believe that we are going to be lucky and have one of the best weather weeks that we've had here at the Nationals in a few years. 
Enjoy!

Incredible pano of HP supercell south of Fairbury, NE earlier from storm chaser Mike Lachendro! @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/4E4pxi3eVg

— Reed Timmer (@reedtimmerTVN) September 7, 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
 ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 
 RAP13 IS ADVERTISING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT WITH FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80. SPC MESO ANALYSIS REVEALING THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER WHERE AFTN HEATING/CLEAR SKY HAS PUSHED MLCAPES ..... SO JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAP13 IS INDICATING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO BE REALIZED WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAST NIGHTS AXIS OF STOUT RAINFALL ACCUM WHERE CURRENT 1HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY 1.5" TO 2". GIVEN BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...HAVE REMOVED DOUGLAS/POTTAWATTAMIE/HARRISON/SHELBY COUNTIES FROM GOING WATCH HEADLINE. GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY CONSISTING OF DEEP WARM CLOUD COINCIDENT TO LYR/LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STOUT POOLING OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED BNDRY SETTING UP OVER THE SRN CWA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PUSHING PWS VALUES TO 2" OR SO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT RAIN INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH ONSET OF LLVL JET. EXTREME INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AS WELL WITH MUCAPES OF 3000-4000J/KG. GIVEN ALL THIS...APPEARS THAT LANCASTER/CASS/OTOE COUNTIES IN NEB...MILLS/MONTGOMERY/FREMONT/PAGE COUNTIES IN IA WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO A FLASH FLOOD EVENT TONIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE STORM THREAT...OVERLAPPING PARAMETERS CONSISTING OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR-50KT/PRONOUNCED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/HAIL THREAT EARLY ON. INCREASING THETA-E DIFFERENTIAL AS STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE THEN WITH LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.