2015 SCCA Solo National Championship Weather - Part V

Just a quick update this morning to let you know about the potential for severe weather on Sunday and into Monday. 

The Omaha NWS office talked about the severe weather potential for the Sunday timeframe. Here is an except from the discussion and here is a link to the full text. Find the Nebraska Omaha office from the drop-down box and click "Submit"

WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES FOR A TIME. THEN BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. QUALITY OF ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTION. 

HOWEVER MODEL FORECASTS ARE HONING IN ON A RIBBON OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER JUST AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35KT IS FORECAST AS WELL...STARTING OUT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO LINE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTING SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT PHASE. SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO FRONT/CONVECTION WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING...LEADING TO MORE LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES AND A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AS FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 

SIGNIFICANT QPF IS NOTED FROM GFS IN 00Z-06Z MONDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS PAINTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BASICALLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. 

SHOULD SEE GENERAL DECREASE IN STORMS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER SUPPORT WANING AND LOW LEVEL JET DECREASING. HOWEVER WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET ROTATE THROUGH BROAD TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...LEADING TO STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

IN FACT...GFS SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN SUNDAY DESPITE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. WE COULD AGAIN SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH TRAINING OF STORMS.

I do like the sound of the long term though...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. AND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THURSDAY WAVE WILL LEAD TO EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE 70S THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS 60S FOR FRIDAY.

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Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook (Sunday)

Surface Based CAPE

Wind Gust