Autocross Weather

2015 SCCA Dixie Tour Weather - Sunday the 8th model runs

3/8/2015

Things do not look as bleak this morning in terms of rainfall.

It now appears that the main axis of rain will stay to the west of the area. Here's an excerpt from the Area Forecast Discussion from the Tallahassee NWS office this morning. The bold is mine.

As additional shortwave wave energy rounds the base of the highly
amplified mid-upper level trough through Texas, another surface
low is forecast to develop over the Bay of Campeche Wednesday and
lift inland over the central Gulf coast region on Thursday. Deep
layer moisture accompanying this system will result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the SE CONUS Thursday
and Friday. Somewhat drier conditions can be expected over the
weekend as a cold front pushes through the CWA Friday night
through early Saturday. Temperatures will be above seasonal levels
through Friday and near normal over the weekend.

As long as it stays to the west, any eastward movement could really mess things up in south Georgia. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's 7 day precip forecast.

The GFS is a little more progressive in pushing out the moisture with a cold front, the Euro not so much. It appears the Tallahassee is leaning toward the GFS, so that's what I'll display here today. Also, keep in mind that there is colder air lurking just to the north. For those of us that live in north Georgia, it's called a "CAD" or cold air damming. Usually what that means for us is cloudy and misty/drizzly weather. We should remain on the warm side of it on Sunday, but something to keep in mind right now, especially for Saturday.

Saturday 7 AM temps. You can see the push of cold air down the east side of the mountains.

Sunday 7 AM. Not quite as strong as Saturday

It appears that beginning Saturday morning, the surface flow will be coming from the NE. This will lower PW values and hopefully reduce the chances for rain. But drizzle and mist become the other possibility.